Four matchweeks in, goals are up and stalemates have almost disappeared. The league is still scoring less than it should, though, and the gap between the clubs who create and the clubs who convert explains most of the table.

Last season Thai League 1 was the league of the draw. Seventy-five of its 240 matches finished level, 31% of them, the highest share in any of the 13 completed seasons for which we have results. Four matchweeks into 2026/27, that habit has gone. Only five of the 32 matches have been drawn. At the same stage a year ago it was 11. There has been a single goalless game, Pattani against Pathum United on the opening weekend, and the home side has won exactly half the time.

Some caution is needed. The share of draws after four rounds has swung between 12.5% and 40% in past seasons, so 32 matches can mislead. But the direction matches the other headline number. There have been 94 goals, 2.94 a game, up from 2.67 across last season.

And there should have been more. In the 29 matches for which FootyStats has expected-goals figures, teams have created chances worth 3.26 goals a game and scored 3.00. That level of chance creation is higher than in any full season since the data began in 2018. The league is running about a quarter of a goal a game short of what its chances are worth, which is almost exactly what happened last season, when 2.96 expected goals a game produced 2.68 real ones.

The spread is the story

That shortfall is not shared evenly. Ten of the 16 clubs have scored fewer goals than their chances suggest, eight of them by a goal or more, while five are at least a goal ahead. Uthai Thani have scored ten times from chances worth 5.5 in the three matches with data. Bangkok United have eight from 4.5 and Ratchaburi eight from 5.1. At the other end, Lamphun Warrior have two goals from chances worth 7.0, Chonburi three from 6.1 and Chiangrai United three from 5.9.

Lay those numbers over the league table and the pattern is hard to miss. Uthai Thani are second and Bangkok United third: they are the two biggest overperformers in front of goal. Lamphun are 15th and Chonburi bottom: they are the two biggest underperformers. League position, for now, is measuring finishing at least as much as it is measuring football.

The bottom two are better than they look

Lamphun have one point from four games. They have also created chances worth 2.32 goals a game, a rate only Port can better, and they average 21 shots, almost as many as Buriram United. Their expected-goal difference is the third best in the division. They have simply missed at one end and been punished at the other: in the three matches with data they conceded seven from chances worth 4.4.

Chonburi have lost all four. Last week we found that seven of the ten clubs to lose their first three games since 2013 finished in the bottom three. Yet Chonburi have created more than they have allowed, 6.1 expected goals against 5.3, and the numbers make them a candidate to be an exception.

The mirror image sits near the top. Uthai Thani have allowed chances worth 2.27 goals a game, more than anyone except Rasisalai United, and their expected-goal difference ranks 12th. Ayutthaya United have conceded four times from chances worth 7.5, Prachuap twice from 5.4. Whether that is goalkeeping or fortune, it rarely lasts a season.

Two clubs are strong by either measure. Port and Buriram have the best expected-goal difference in the league, both more than a goal a game to the good, and both have finished slightly below par. Pathum United, tenth, have the fourth-best underlying numbers and are the likeliest climbers.

Who is scoring

Guilherme Bissoli of Buriram and João Giaccomoni of Rayong lead the scorers with four each. FootyStats’ player records, which account for 89 of the 94 goals, credit Brazilians with 45 and Thai players with 21. Thirteen of those 21 have come from three clubs: Port and Bangkok United with five each and Ratchaburi with three.

What happens next

Four games is a small sample, three matches have no expected-goals data and this is one provider’s model, so none of it is a forecast. But finishing this far from the chances rarely holds. Uthai Thani and Bangkok United are unlikely to keep scoring at nearly twice their expected rate, and Lamphun and Chonburi are unlikely to keep missing. Draws will probably return too. We will run the numbers again after ten games.

Data FootyStats.