Three games in, Buriram United are top and half the division is within touching distance. Thirteen seasons of results say the top of the table is telling us very little, and the bottom rather more.

The Thai League 1 table has had more than a fortnight to sit and be admired. Buriram United are top with seven points from three games. Rayong are level with them. A point further back come Uthai Thani, Prachuap, Bangkok United, Port and Ayutthaya United. That is seven clubs within a point of the summit, and in the 14 seasons for which we have match-by-match results the top of the table has never been so crowded after three games.

It has already cost one man his job. Port won their first two matches, lost the third at Sukhothai and replaced Sarawut Treephan with Božidar Bandović while sitting a point off the top. So before the league returns this weekend, it is worth asking what the table is actually worth at this stage. We went back through every top-flight season from 2013 to 2025/26, 13 in all, and rebuilt the table after each club’s first three, five and ten games.

The leaders rarely last

The club on top after three games went on to win the title in four of those 13 seasons. After five games the figure is five. After ten games it is seven. By the time most clubs have played a third of their fixtures, the table’s best guess at the champion is barely better than a coin toss.

Even those figures flatter the early table. Three of the four leaders who finished the job from three games in were Buriram United, in 2021/22, 2024/25 and 2025/26. The other was Muangthong United in 2016, a season that ended three rounds early. Set Buriram aside and the ten other early leaders produced one champion between them.

What a fast start does buy is a good season. Twelve of the 13 early leaders finished in the top three. The exception was Ubon UMT United, who won their first three games in 2017 and finished tenth. Port supporters may wish to look away now: their club were top, or level at the top, after three games in 2018, 2019 and 2020/21, and finished third every time.

Champions tend to start slowly

Turn the question round. Where were the eventual champions after three games? Outside the top three in seven of the 13 seasons. Buriram alone have won the title from fifth, seventh and eighth at this stage.

The 2014 side is the one to remember. They took four points from their first three games, were 12th after ten and stood ten points behind Muangthong. They finished as champions, three points clear of Chonburi. Nor is that ancient history. In 2023/24 Bangkok United led after three games, after five and after ten, by which point Buriram were fourth and eight points adrift. Buriram won the league by eight.

Chiangrai United, champions in 2019, had six points from their first five games. And a perfect start guarantees nothing. Only four clubs in those 13 seasons won their first five matches. Muangthong did it in 2017 and finished second. Bangkok United did it in 2020/21 and finished fifth. The other two were Buriram, in each of the past two seasons.

Which is the awkward part for everyone else. Buriram have opened this season with two wins and a draw, and next to the 15 points from 15 they managed in each of the past two years that looks like a wobble. It is not. Seven points from three games is exactly what they had in 2013, 2017, 2021/22 and 2023/24. They won the league every time.

The bottom is a different story

If the top of the early table is mostly noise, the bottom is much closer to a signal. Ten clubs across those 13 seasons lost all of their first three games. Seven of them finished in the bottom three. The exceptions were Saraburi, 15th of 18 in 2015, and Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani, who both began 2023/24 with three defeats and finished seventh and ninth.

That brings us to Chonburi, the only club without a point this season, with three defeats and two goals scored. The precedent is not kind. They do, though, supply their own counter-example: a year ago they had two points after five games and finished eighth. Rayong offer the reverse lesson. Unbeaten now and level on points with the champions, they lost each of their first five games in 2020/21 and finished bottom.

So what is the table telling us?

Three things, tentatively. First, whatever the reasons for the change at Port, the league table was not one of them: six points from three games is a start that has preceded titles, and a place at the top would have promised nothing anyway. Second, the clubs enjoying the view should enjoy it. History offers an early leader a good season far more often than a trophy. Third, Buriram on seven points is business as usual, which is the least comforting finding of all.

Ask again after ten games. Even then, the table will be right only about half the time.

Data FootyStats.