Thailand play the first FIFA-sanctioned ASEAN Cup final tonight, in front of 67,000 in Jakarta, against hosts they have not lost to in five meetings. The team sheets say Anthony Hudson has been building towards it since the Vietnam game.

Nine. That is how many of the eleven Anthony Hudson changed for a match Thailand could not lose their group by losing, and it is the number that explains everything else about the week.

Thailand went into the final round of the group having already done the hard part: four past Pakistan, Teerasak Poeiphimai with a hat-trick, then a 2-0 win over Vietnam through Sarach Yooyen inside ten minutes and Chaiyapon Otton in stoppage time. Six points, a goal difference of plus five, and a fixture left over that could be used rather than won. Hudson used it. The Philippines won 1-2, Thailand still topped Group B on goal difference, and the nine players he had rested are the nine who should walk out at the Gelora Bung Karno at eight o’clock tonight.

Indonesia arrive by a stranger route. Level with Malaysia on seven points and on a goal difference of plus nine, having drawn 0-0 with them, they went into the final on goals scored, 11 to nine — which is to say that the two stoppage-time goals in a 9-2 win over Bangladesh are the reason tonight’s final is this one and not another. Mitchell Baker scored five of the nine.

Thailand · one to watch

Teerasak Poeiphimai

1

Start

3

Apps

136

Minutes

Took a hat-trick against Pakistan in the opening match and has been used sparingly since — 136 minutes across three appearances, only one of them from the start. Thailand’s most economical forward, and the obvious card still in Hudson’s hand.

Indonesia · one to watch

Ole Romeny

3

Starts

4

Assists

247

Minutes

Four assists in three matches, the most of anyone in the competition, and an ever-present in a side that scored eleven in the group stage. Mitchell Baker took the headlines with five against Bangladesh; Romeny has been the one setting them up.

The group stage, decided

How Group A was settled. Indonesia and Malaysia finished level on seven points and on a goal difference of plus nine, and drew 0-0 with each other. Indonesia went into the final on goals scored, 11 to 9. Malaysia are the only side in the competition not to concede a goal, and they go into the third-place match. Thailand topped Group B on goal difference.

Hudson’s rotation

Hudson has since said he wanted seven to nine players arriving at the final without three games in a row behind them, and that he accepted the risk the performance would drop. It did. But the claim is stronger than a manager’s account of his own thinking, because the team sheets bear it out: he had already changed five between Pakistan and Vietnam, so he never named the same eleven twice, and only one outfield player was on the pitch at the start of all three matches.

What the underlying numbers say

There is a second number worth holding on to. By expected goals, Thailand’s best result of the group stage was their worst performance. They were out-chanced by Vietnam, 1.74 to 1.18, and won 2-0 with seven of their eight shots on target. Against the Philippines they shaded it, 1.07 to 0.94, and lost. A side whose results have run first ahead of and then behind its underlying numbers is a side that could go either way tonight, which is roughly what a final should feel like.

In their words

Translated from Thai-language reports. Hudson and Herdman spoke in English, so their words have been through Thai and back again — faithful in sense, but not a transcript.

“Of course I was aware of the risk in going into that match — one training session, and a lot of changes. The risk that follows is that the performance drops. But I had to do what I judged best for the final, so I could accept that risk. Nobody is happy with the result, but the reasoning behind the decision was very clear, and if I had to do it again I would decide the same way.”

Anthony Hudson, Thailand head coach — at the pre-match press conference on 4 October. He does not claim the performance was acceptable; he claims the trade was.

“Tactically I would be better off keeping quiet, but Anthony Hudson already knows. He knows how I play. He studied Canada over a lot of matches when we were up against the United States. So this is going to be a very good game.”

John Herdman, Indonesia head coach — the two met in World Cup qualifying, when Herdman had Canada and Hudson was on the United States staff. The Thai headline on this used ru tai, the phrase for having seen through someone’s hand, which is rather more pointed than Herdman’s own shrug.

“Indonesia have strong, quality players. So do we. I think it will be an enjoyable game. We know how to deal with their players. As I said, everyone has quality — and the moment they underestimate us, our team can punish Indonesia too.”

Supachai Chaided, Thailand forward — after training at the Madya Stadium in Jakarta on 4 October. The conditional is his.

Two matches at the Gelora Bung Karno today: Malaysia v Vietnam for third place at 16:00, then the final at 20:00. No Thai broadcaster holds the rights; DAZN is carrying it free in Thailand. If Thailand win, the nine changes become foresight. If they lose, they become the reason.

Scorelines, kick-off times, venues, goal minutes, starting line-ups and expected goals are taken from the FootyStats API, season 17950, with kick-off times converted to Asia/Bangkok. Goalscorer names are not carried by the API for this competition and are sourced from match reports. Player-level goal totals in the API are incomplete for this competition and have not been used. Data FootyStats.